Tuesday, August 17, 2010

If you really want to search for a dark horse, Leinart might be your guy

Hardesty, though, is the exciting pick, the one with the high upside who could turn into the next great thing. Don't let the fact it is unlikely to happen hold you back, right? Trying to hit a home run also can mean striking out.


No, Harrison is not the best player in the league. But do yourself a favor. Don't take the wild gamble at a point in your draft when you still need reliable contributions. Take ignored Harrison, take the production and don't expose yourself to a potentially wasted pick.


Based on my rankings, these are other players likely to be undervalued and available in the middle to late rounds.


•QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals. The addition of Terrell Owens has turned some sentiment on Palmer, but the injuries and lingering memory of last year's 26th-ranked passing offense are too much for many to overcome. Plus, the depth at quarterback this year means there really isn't much reason to take a chance on an uncertain player.


If, however, you wait to take a quarterback, Palmer is a player you can snag in the eighth or ninth round. That gives you the luxury of freeing up one of those early-round picks to use elsewhere — on a top tight end, for example.


•QB Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals. If you really want to search for a dark horse, Leinart might be your guy. With how poorly he is thought of, you can get him in about the 12th round and will want to draft him as a backup. Leinart's upside is huge, given the low expectations. He has star Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, as well as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet. Coach Ken Whisenhunt will protect Leinart with a solid ground game and let Leinart gain confidence. Take him as a backup and use him as midseason trade bait.


•RB Chester Taylor, Chicago Bears. Matt Forte might wind up being a very good starter for Chicago, but it's a wild guess at this point. He is coming off a poor, injury-hampered season, the Bears brought in offensive coordinator Mike Martz and then they signed veteran Taylor. Taylor has long been one of the league's best third-down backs, and third-down-type backs often are what Martz wants.


Forte is being drafted as the no-brainer starter, which is not reality. If the playing time is closer to 50-50, the two should be drafted close to each other. I lost faith in Forte last year and rank Taylor ahead of him.


•RB Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Williams is a relatively boring veteran with limited upside on a likely low-scoring team. At some point around the ninth round, that is exactly what your team will need, and Williams will probably be sitting there.


He made it through 2009 after returning from a serious knee injury and had his best season since his rookie year in 2005. The Bucs did not bring in anybody to take Williams' time, and he can expect a modest increase in work. That gets him near 1,000 yards and six to eight touchdowns. There is a spot for those numbers on anybody's roster.


•WR Steve Smith, New York Giants. A groin injury in training camp took a little luster off Smith, but he should be fine well ahead of Week 1. For a player who was second in the league with 107 catches and one of five receivers with more than 100 receptions, Smith gets little respect.


The knocks are that Smith has had one big year, the Giants Larry Fitzgerald might run more and the team's other receivers are ready to step up. Smith should be a top-10 receiver, but it is easy to let him slide because of the uncertainty around him. If you have a chance to add him as your No. 2 on the cheap, take it.


•WR Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers. Looking at Driver, I see a player with six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and an automatic No. 3 receiver or flex starter. He also is 35 and going into his 12th season, with some younger teammates itching to take his playing time.


When a player has been consistent and productive for so long, you can assume he will continue at that level until he proves otherwise. For Driver, that means adding him as a third receiver in the seventh or eighth round.


•WR Santana Moss, Washington Redskins. Moss has been a perennial disappointment, but that generally has been the fault of the Redskins, not of Moss. He essentially remains an afterthought, being drafted as if Washington will drag him down again. The odds of that happening with coach Mike Shanahan and quarterback Donovan McNabb appear slim. And Moss has almost no competition at wide receiver. Moss will not suddenly turn into one of the league's elite receivers, but Shanahan's offense will demand a high-catch player (80 to 90 receptions), and that almost has to fall into Moss' hands.


•TE Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders. He seems to be getting punished despite his success and the Raiders' upgrade at quarterback. Miller has improved his year-to-year stats in each of his three seasons and should be on the brink of something huge with Jason Campbell taking over at quarterback. Miller should be an automatic top-10 tight end pick and has a chance to wind up being the best of the second tier at the position.


Signing former Titans linebacker Keith Bulluck  was a nice pickup, especially since he's been so productive and pretty much sets the standard for professionalism. He's projected to move from outside to middle linebacker for the Giants, but would that be the best fit?


Bulluck didn't play against the Jets on Monday night as he continues to recover from major knee surgery. Jonathan Goff, Gerris Wilkinson and Phillip Dillard took turns with Goff starting. By all appearances, all three played fairly well. Film breakdown could tell otherwise but the need to move Bulluck inside might have been marginalized.


I was with the Titans last week and there were some folks wondering how Bulluck Anquan Boldin would do because he's not so much a masher -- as the middle spot lends itself to -- as he is a playmaker. New Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell might be looking for that style of Mike 'backer instead of the type New York had for years with Antonio Pierce. In the meantime, Wilkinson, Goff and Dillard combined for 12 tackles, two stops for loss, a forced fumble and a pass breakup. Not bad.


Bulluck, based on his resume, could still be more effective than either three -- that's why the Giants signed him and changed his position. New York is being cautious with Bulluck so he'll be ready for Week 1. We'll see if they need him by then.


Next up vs. Pittsburgh on Saturday: Bulluck could be held out again, but should he play, the Steelers will come right at him as they hope to improve their running game.



Source: http://nfljersey8889.blogspot.com/2010/08/if-you-really-want-to-search-for-dark.html


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