Olympus' Quiet Death or A Deep Breath Before Something Big?

So as I sit in the executive lounge at the Calgary Airport eating all the snacks and drinking all their Pelegrino I have time to cruise the net on my iPad and catch upon all the latest rumors. I kind of wish I had a Mac Book Pro as I have a wedding waiting to be edited that I can't work on until tomorrow as the iPad isn't exactly a Photoshop/Lightroom wizard. It's perfect for this though, for sitting and surfing.

Anyway Photokina is a month away and the Internet is awash with rumors from all the different camera brands. In the first ever podcast from this blog we'll be breaking down the expected releases from each camera manufacturer, but as I'm an Olympus guy that finally went over to Canon in late 2009 I thought I'd offer some opinion about the future of their little camera company, particularly the pro camera model of the E1 & E3. Just a short little apology, I usually insert a lot of links in a post but it can be tedious to do so when blogging on the iPad so just hit Google to find my sources and I'll try and remember to insert links later.

I dug around a bit today and read lots of different opinions and rumors. Seems that:

- Olympus has possibly discontinued all of their current DSLR models. Indeed when I checked on the new online store in the US they only had the E620, E30 & E3 offered for sale. 43 rumors website says they have a camera store source that reports Olympus discontinuing their entire non-micro four thirds line.

- Olympus at least considered a hybrid model of pro micro four thirds camera that would accept regular four thirds lenses as a way to appease us old school customers.

- Sales of four thirds dslr's have plummeted while those of the micro four thirds cameras have been very strong. So much so in fact that other manufacturers like Nikon, Pentax and Canon are being forced to consider the market while Sony and Samsung have entered it. Panasonic failed in the dslr market with the really good L1 and the somewhat ho hum L10 but is enjoying a huge gain in market share with its GF1, G2, G10 and GH1.

- While there are still pro photographers using Olympus equipment they are getting less frequent all the time. Olympus still showcases it's Visionary Photographers and has a support program for pro photographers.

While many will disagree I think there is still a strong market out there for non-full frame pro DSLR cameras like the D300S, 7D, 1D Mk IV, E3 and K7. While the market for the mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras like the G2 or EP2 has been proven to have huge growth potential for the industry the technology to make these cameras of 'Pro' quality does not yet exist in my opinion. Not to say you can't make a professional image with them, you ,sot definitely can, but they lack many features I'd consider mandatory for a working camera namely rugged build, weather sealing, fast autofocus and a big bright built in viewfinder.

So if what I'm supposing is true will Olympus keep manufacturing it DSLR's with the small four thirds sensor? On one level it makes sense for them to continue. Even if most consumers buy smaller cameras they put a lot of weight in the credibility of a brand they see professionals use at baseball games, weddings and in media scrums. That is probably one of the big reasons Olympus sponsors the US Open tennis tournament so they are clearly aware of the importance of brand recognition. I get asked a lot by clients and guests at weddings about the gear I use and for camera purchasing advice. If the gear I carry has Canon written on the front of it pretty much counts as a brand recommendation to a lot of my customers. So my point is that even if sales of a camera like the E3 are really low, having a pro caliber camera that is actually being used professionally does a lot for credibility of the brand.

The other reason a camera manufacturer may wish to carry a high end camera is to keep their current customers that are serious about photography and want an upgrade path. Most of us form brand loyalties early and so long as the brand we choose build a reasonably good product we will continue with that brand for our whole lives so long as it has a product that suits our needs and desires. My dad is a Chevy guy. Me I bought a new Chevy once but it broke down a lot, so now I'm a Nissan guy. I've bought six different Nissan vehicles. I'm kind of craving my next car to have a bit more luxury, but lucky for me Nissan has thought of my upgrade path and makes the high end Infiniti vehicles. Kodak makes point and shoot cameras nowadays and I think largely because of the brand recognition of their name they probably sell a lot of them, but a few years ago they stopped making DSLR cameras despite that from what I hear the cameras were quite good. Now if a Kodak customer develops a serious interest in photography that requires a camera that is more capable than their point and shoot they will be forced to switch brands leaving Kodak in the cold. Myself as a case in point, am a big fan of Olympus cameras, but they didn't replace their E3 in a timely way and I felt I needed new gear that would do things for me that the E3 wouldn't so I bought a Canon. Now as I purchase Canon lenses and get great results from the cameras I can feel my loyalties shifting. Olympus is missing an opportunity by their lack of regular commitment to the Pro Camera user to keep me in the field with their brand name around my neck.

Now I've trolled around the forums at Dpreview and FourThirdsPhoto and read the numerous threads on whether a replacement is coming from Olympus for the E3. The regulars there appear to be getting irate with the visitors asking about replacement rumors but in reading their complaints about the tirade of speculation I've realized that what I was really seeing is a high level of anxiety from both camps. Olympus is at a very obvious crossroads. They are experiencing success with micro four thirds like they never had with regular four thirds products. Panasonic is proving that you can ditch your DSLR line and still draw a profit. Thing is though that Panasonic draws virtually no professionals to it's product for real working photography and no matter how brilliant their product that will always be their Achilles heel until the technology of the format makes it useable on a regular basis to working pros. If Olympus ditches the E3 line they will admit that four thirds was never relevant, they will alienate thousands of photographers that bought into the brand (particularly those with the expensive SHG lenses), and they will finally destroy the upgrade path for serious photographers that use their brand of equipment.

It has been three years since the E3 was released. In my opinion that is too long between Pro body upgrades. I plan on (and budget for) replacing my main camera every two years for my work. It was even longer between the E1 and E3 releases. This is no way to build confidence in the brand. I won't even mention how long it has been since we've seen any decent new lenses from Olympus. Now if I'm going to throw my opinion around, I will say it probably doesn't matter if Olympus replaces the E620 or any of their smaller DSLR cameras. It is my true belief that the micro four thirds segment of camera is very likely to replace both cheap and small DSLR's and high end point and shoots in the market. Olympus can have replacements for the E30 and E3 though. One weather sealed and one not. One 'prosumer' and one Pro body. This would achieve the maintenance of a logical upgrade path for it's current brand loyal customers and, should they get these cameras into the hands of working Pros it would bring recognition and exposure to their products. Canon has shown with the 7D and Nikon with the D300 that crops sensor cameras in a DSLR body are still very relevant to Pros and serious amateurs.

In the end though, after serious consideration I don't think Olympus is going to do it. I don't think we are going to see the E5. Despite my love of their product the truth is that they are just a corporate giant no different than Ford, Rogers or Google. They may profess a love for photographic excellence but in the end they love their balance sheet so much more. Decisions by corporations are so often made by accountants and executives, many of whom wouldn't know an f-stop from a pit stop. The huge success of micro-for thirds will, I think spell the demise of four thirds. It's too bad, and it will ultimately anger and alienate thousands of photographers that will no longer trust the brand, but if you honestly reflect on the corporate position of Olympus it seems very likely that I'm about to be a pretty good fortune teller. Photokina is nearly here, and I'll be thrilled to be proven wrong. I sincerely hope I am. But I suspect that my E3 is about to finally become my full time hobby camera. If there are no announcements one way or the other by the end of September then go visit the Dpreview Olympus forums. They'll be eating their young.

Comments are always welcome. Being as tis will likely be an emotional and controversial topic I ask for polite and relevant comments only please. Happy to hear from those that disagree with me and I'll probably even cheer for you to one day say you told me so